Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008218 0.009277 0.010436 0.011804 0.013377 0.015135 0.017251
2024-10-20 0.006287 0.007651 0.009277 0.011372 0.014015 0.017260 0.021582
2024-10-27 0.005269 0.006732 0.008576 0.011093 0.014473 0.018904 0.025233
2024-11-03 0.004670 0.006207 0.008233 0.011136 0.015243 0.020933 0.029565
2024-11-10 0.004352 0.005990 0.008237 0.011598 0.016583 0.023849 0.035506
2024-11-17 0.003906 0.005533 0.007841 0.011418 0.016942 0.025348 0.039503
2024-11-24 0.003598 0.005233 0.007624 0.011457 0.017604 0.027348 0.044532
2024-12-01 0.003269 0.004865 0.007263 0.011222 0.017784 0.028574 0.048414
2024-12-08 0.003096 0.004714 0.007212 0.011460 0.018742 0.031174 0.055038
2024-12-15 0.002889 0.004491 0.007021 0.011442 0.019256 0.033056 0.060617
2024-12-22 0.002611 0.004128 0.006573 0.010940 0.018859 0.033254 0.062996
2024-12-29 0.002448 0.003939 0.006392 0.010880 0.019241 0.034914 0.068495
2025-01-05 0.002401 0.003946 0.006552 0.011456 0.020900 0.039281 0.080466
2025-01-12 0.002194 0.003663 0.006190 0.011048 0.020641 0.039861 0.084455
2025-01-19 0.002030 0.003443 0.005917 0.010776 0.020614 0.040899 0.089635
2025-01-26 0.001928 0.003323 0.005815 0.010818 0.021220 0.043337 0.098512
2025-02-02 0.001889 0.003315 0.005914 0.011265 0.022719 0.047917 0.113483
2025-02-09 0.001773 0.003155 0.005717 0.011091 0.022864 0.049476 0.121099
2025-02-16 0.001693 0.003056 0.005627 0.011130 0.023478 0.052203 0.132338
2025-02-23 0.001590 0.002905 0.005421 0.010902 0.023460 0.053407 0.139613
2025-03-02 0.001544 0.002862 0.005428 0.011132 0.024528 0.057430 0.155779
2025-03-09 0.001476 0.002770 0.005327 0.011115 0.025007 0.060031 0.168305
2025-03-16 0.001366 0.002588 0.005029 0.010628 0.024288 0.059412 0.170792